By Chandrashekar (Chandra) Tamirisa, (On Twitter) @c_tamirisa
As a Member of the William & Mary community I pledge, on my Honor, not to lie, cheat, or steal in either my academic or personal life. I understand that such acts violate the Honor Code and undermine the community of trust of which we are all stewards.
Recited by every entering student, Wren Building, College of William and Mary, Instituted by Alumnus Thomas Jefferson in 1779
Vice President Joseph R Biden, in his endorsement speech of his boss in The Oval, lamented the condition of unemployment as that which harms human dignity.
Alan Greenspan’s take on the same is about erosion of skills over time, never mind that “it is not the economy, but the economic model stupid.” Economists’ inability to innovate in their science and its application renders those – at the Federal Reserve whose job it is to supply money to create jobs by legal mandate – eminently skilled in the old school, obsolete, for them to become the oxymoronic “employed unemployed”. Loss of dignity and institutional credibility is, therefore, a consequence of that incompetence.
United States Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is saying that the unemployment number has not changed since July, within statistical margin of error.
After President Obama’s re-nomination acceptance speech without a primary contender for his party’s nomination of him for reelection as president of the United States, “boy, go get an education, you’ll get a job” no longer sounds sincere in a country where education is as much a business as deep-seated as Bohemian Club and Bilderberg in how the country is run, turning into a feeder program for collusion in public service, no matter the state of the educated in their adherence to the honor system, from Harvard to the local community college, the first “student (self)-policed honor system was instituted in 1779 at The College of William & Mary at the behest of Virginia’s then-Governor Thomas Jefferson (Wikipedia).”
Measurements matter.
A close look at the unemployment report shows full employment (around 4% unemployment as during the Clinton-Bush years) for those with college degrees, defined as all degrees up to a PHD, reflecting the president’s sentiment on the value of education.
The reality speaks differently because education is a signal not an entitlement to a job for a lifetime. Without performance, president or pauper, Harvard or Timbuktu-educated, business owners understand they cannot carry workers without revenues which can be assignable to the workers. With the U-6 (Table A 15) or “dignity or skill-erosion” unemployment rate in the range 14-15%, “full” employment of the educated at an unemployment rate of 4% sounds irrational.
Technically, unemployment ought to be computed, in the age of advanced information technology, akin to the census with the one month lag as it is now. All US persons must be surveyed under law, through both the Household and Establishment surveys.
Jobs created “minus” Jobs lost = 0 =>Unemployment rate stays the same
Jobs created “minus” Jobs lost >0 => Unemployment rate rises
Jobs created “minus” Jobs lost <0 => Unemployment rate falls
The unemployment rate measured by including all people who are able-bodied and employable adults over the age of 18 (a) looking for paying (not unpaid volunteer) work but who cannot find a full-time or part-time job (b) who stopped looking for paying (not unpaid volunteer) work for any reason but need paying (not unpaid volunteer) work (c) are on other forms of government assistance outside of unemployment insurance during or after it has lapsed and need paying (not unpaid volunteer) (d) holdouts who are only looking for a certain type of paying (not unpaid volunteer) such as typically people with college degrees and do not want to be underemployed (e) the underemployed who are paid less because their capabilities are not being fully utilized by the labor market, (f) unemployed because of legal reasons such as former criminals discriminated by the labor and financial markets (g) socially or politically persecuted despite the law, and (h) underground undocumented workers either due to immigration status or other reasons.
I have tabulated the various components of unemployment below:
United States of America – run by a Nobel Peace Laureate president who sells American weaponry directly through the US government and private arms dealers to achieve his objective of doubling exports by 2017 – is not keeping its numbers correctly.
17h Kimberley Strassel @KimStrassel
(Potomac Watch columnist for The Wall Street Journal editorial page)
Obama promises to “nation build” America. You didn’t build that nation! He did! #dnc
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16h 1776 @1_776
@KimStrassel In 2012, people are looking for sensible solutions. Not the fresh inspiration of 2008.
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11:53 PM – 6 Sep 12 · Details
Lindsey Graham @GrahamBlog
(Lindsey Graham is United States Senator from South Carolina)
President Obama’s failed economic policies have led to the worst recovery since World War II. Retweeted by 1776
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2m ABC World News @ABCWorldNews
August Jobs Report: Unemployment Falls to 8.1 Percent http://abcn.ws/TxJOmv #ABCWorldNews
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52s 1776 @1_776
@ABCWorldNews I thought you could have said 4.1%, spun it to make @barackobama win.
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6:32 PM – 7 Sep 12 · Details
1m 1776 @1_776
(Daniel Sichel was my supervisor at Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System until 06/16/2010 and a member of the official staff; Douglas Elmendorf was a member of the official staff and later served as Director of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, CBO)
Challenge to @federalreserve Sichel/Elmendorf given my comments on lack of real investment on your paper: by 12/31 U-1 != 4.1% Bernanke out.
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15s 1776 @1_776
Challenge to @federalreserve. Sichel/Elmendorf. Need help? Here, http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/ …
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28s 1776 @1_776
@federalreserve Sichel/Elmendorf, http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/#comment-3244, http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/06/obamas-debt-ceiling-gambit/ …
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4m Andrew Stiles @AndrewStilesWFB
(Reporter for @FreeBeacon)
Krugman on jobs: What we’re seeing is “a stabilization at a depressed level, which has now gone on for almost 3 years.” #USA #4MoreYears
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now 1776 @1_776
@AndrewStilesWFB @nytimeskrugman http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/#comment-3244
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7:01 PM – 7 Sep 12 · Details
2m slone @slone
72% Americans say ECONOMY is NUMBER ONE ISSUE http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-obama-romney-economy-factor-20120827,0,6954874.story #tcot
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15s 1776 @1_776
@slone It is the Federal Reserve’s job to supply money to create jobs, http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/#comment-3244
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12:26 PM – 9 Sep 12 · Details
Austan Goolsbee @Austan_Goolsbee
Trend is always more accurate than 1 mo’s job rept. In last yr, unem down a full point and most of that from more jobs not shrinking L force
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2h 1776 @1_776
@Austan_Goolsbee L was pre-ordained.
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11:10 AM – 9 Sep 12 · Details
15m Elysee @Elysee
“Dignité mais en même temps respect de la loi.” #JTHollande
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16s 1776 @1_776
@Elysee Je fais. Je m’attends à mon gouvernement et tous les gouvernements à faire de même.
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12s 1776 @1_776
@Elysee Transformation de la durabilité n’est pas illégal ou criminel ni mon génie. http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/ …
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19m Luke Baker @LukeReuters
Banking Union rattles non-euro zone members http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/12/uk-eu-bankingunion-idUKBRE88B1CW20120912 via @reuters
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now 1776 @1_776
@LukeReuters @barackobama @whitehouse @federalreserve Alan Greenspan thinks long-term unemployed not good at what they do so don’t get jobs.
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4:08 PM – 12 Sep 12 · Details
8s 1776 @1_776
@LukeReuters @reuters @gop @thedemocrats http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/07/unemployment/#comment-3347
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4:10 PM – 12 Sep 12 · Details
53m Free Libya @bint_tarhouna
Whoever the PM is going to be, first thing he should do is announce a state of emergency and put out a weapons amnesty for a month #myway
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7s 1776 @1_776
@bint_tarhouna http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/12/on-the-evolving-situation-in-libya/ …
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5:14 PM – 12 Sep 12 · Details
1m WhiteHousePressCorps @whpresscorps
RT @AP_Ken_Thomas ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE (AP) _ In wake of Libya attack, Obama says Romney ‘has a tendency to shoot first and aim later.’
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now 1776 @1_776
@whpresscorps @AP_Ken_Thomas Get Americans jobs Libyans need jobs also, then we will know you don’t shoot from the hip http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/11/forward-monetary-policy-of-the-united-states-2012-2032/#comment-3348
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4:24 PM – 12 Sep 12 · Details
5s 1776 @1_776
@whpresscorps @AP_Ken_Thomas @federalreserve http://ctamirisa.com/2012/09/11/forward-monetary-policy-of-the-united-states-2012-2032/#comment-3348
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4:26 PM – 12 Sep 12 · Details
Table A-1 of BLS and the Employment Situation Summary do not suggest any massive improprieties with data. Both Household and Establishment Surveys are believable. The data, however, does suggest that part-time employment, whose persistence is low by definition, has gone up significantly indicative of the possible role of campaign employment. We have to wait and see what happens after November 06, 2012 to the September-October 2012 data.